Dr Sam Bailey — You Cannot Deny Excess Mortality… or Can You?

Sam Bailey

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Dr Sam Bailey

Dr. Sam Bailey is a medical doctor, based in Christchurch, New Zealand. She featured in a New Zealand TV series about health, The Checkup, and runs her own Youtube channel with 160k subscribers. Dr. Bailey is a qualified family doctor who has worked in general practice, sexual health, emergency, clinical trials and telehealth. She currently works in private research. Owing to YouTube censorship she has started posting her videos on LBRY (Odysee).


Many of you have asked me about both in regards to COVID-19, to be honest, I haven’t been as interested in excess mortality compared to issues such as PCR tests, clinical diagnosis, human rights and vaccines. It’s not because I don’t think it has an important role if analyzed correctly, but more that the conclusions that can be drawn are often, far more limited than what is claimed like with macro economics, population level aggregated statistics regarding health, do not necessarily reveal causality or tell us what is going on at ground-level.

With COVID-19. It is completely unscientific to observe some excess mortality in a region and then conclude on face value that it is all due to a virus. However, I can sympathize that many people were terrified by the images at first came out of Wuhan were workers and hazmat suits with apparently spraying disinfectant on the streets.

Then the reports came in from Italy with horror stories of bodies stacking up everywhere. It was understandable to presume that all the deaths were related to a new virus, but we need to avoid jumping to conclusions and work with all the available evidence.

There are many factors that contribute towards mortality, including the very policies that were apparently designed to protect the population. And sometimes policies in one region can manifest with dramatic effects than other regions.

Organizations, such as UNICEF sounded the alarm about the impact of these policies in the first half of 2020.

Okay. You have a twisted my arm. So let’s dive in and have a look at excess mortality. Excess mortality also known as mortality displacement is a temporary increase in the number of deaths in a specified population over a specified period of time.

We will go to the Euro MoMo site is that as generally considered to have reliable data and also allows us to readily compare excess mortality between different countries and the region.

It’s particularly interesting to compare countries that share a border with one another. As we can see, there was a huge spike in excess mortality in Spain centered around April, but right next door and Portugal, there was barely a bump. And in fact, there was a spike back in the winter of 2017, that was higher than 2020.

Similarly, if we look at the UK, we can see a huge spike for England centered around April, but a much smaller bump for Wales, the neighbor to the West.

We can also take a look at how the map of Europe locked on week 12 this year. It is certainly remarkable how contrasting the excess mortality rates were between countries that were right next door to one another; lots of excess deaths apparent and Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, and the UK. While, in other parts of Europe, this wasn’t happening.

Now as I say, the conclusions we can draw from population level statistics can be limited, but it is certainly curious that a virus itself would behave so differently when crossing a border. Yes, there can be different demographics such as age and other health factors, but many of these regions have quite similar populations. It certainly raises questions about what else was going on in those countries at the time.

These charts show a 24 country comparison from 2017 to week 49 of 2020. Again, the salient observation is that around half of the countries in Europe did not experience any significant excess mortality over 2020. It clearly raises doubts that a respiratory virus alone could possibly be the only factor at work.

I’d encourage you to have a look at the Euro MoMo website yourself if you want to look further at the statistics.

You may have seen my interview with Jim and physician, Claus Köhnlein. He has pointed out that a major difference between countries was the use of experimental drugs, such as hydroxychloroquine, and antivirals. One example was the extremely high dose of hydroxychloroquine being administered. For example, in the Solidarity trial, the dose was an unbelievable 2,400 milligrams on the first day of treatment for COVID patients.

December 22, 2020

“curious that a virus itself would behave so differently when crossing a border.”

Dr Sam Bailey

To put this in perspective, some medical authorities advise that the overdose rate is 25 mgs per kg, i.e. Less than 2000 milligrams for many people, and more than the this would necessitate an emergency admission. It is also five to 10 times the usual dose we use for other medical conditions.

And keep in mind these huge doses of hydroxychloroquine were being used mostly on frail elderly patients with no dosage reduction for their body weight and impaired physiology. There were several studies which administered these reckless dosages and outside of the studies many other patients may have also been exposed.

Most countries thankfully stopped using high dose hydroxychloroquine by the end of May, which also coincided with falling mortality rates, Dr. Claus Köhnlein summed it up as follows:

It could be that we got off so well in Germany because we were therapeutically more reserved from the beginning and all because we had learned from the bad experiences and countries such as Italy, Spain, France, and England, and hardly used any antiviral substances.

And just to emphasize, this is not to say that drug over-treatment was the only thing going on, but must be considered as an important factor, particularly as mortality drops so quickly after that terrible month or two.

For those of you that are in the United Kingdom, I’d recommend taking a look at the UK Column news platform.

They have been particularly interested in excess mortality in the UK and their investigations have suggested that many of the deaths were due to mismanagement of the elderly and the lockdowns themselves.

They also provide regular broadcasts on the YouTube channel, which are both informative and entertaining. Another essential factor to take into account when considering excess mortality is not just the number of deaths, but the age at which the deaths occurred.

From this public health physicians can calculate years of life lost. It can be used to determine how much premature mortality there has been due to a specific cause of death. It gives greater weight to younger deaths. For example, if life expectancy is 80 years and there is a death of a 30 year old then this would be 50 years of life lost. A death of a 79 and a half year old would be six months of life lost.

This has been summed up with all of the other premature deaths in that population. And a years of life lost rate can be calculated. For example, per a hundred thousand people, we can see the terrible impact things such as road traffic fatalities have on years of life lost because most of the time the victims are not expected to be anywhere near the end of their life. But what about COVID-19?

Even if we accept that the excess deaths are all caused by COVID-19 and don’t worry, I’ll get onto that in a minute. Are we seeing a huge increase in years of life lost? Even as far back as April Dr. Claus Köhnlein, Head of Hamburg forensic medicine told the Hamburger Abendblatt, of the so-called COVID-19 fatalities he examined, all had such serious pre-existing conditions that even f this sounds harsh, they would all have died.

In the course of this year John Ioannidis has done a recent analysis suggesting that while some analysts have calculated around one year of life lost for each COVID case, this number is likely to come down further, as all co-morbidities are taken into account.

And remember, this is based on the premise that they are actually all COVID cases, which remains highly questionable.

Another time we might see excess deaths without years of life lost as following several years of mild winters, where the elderly population builds and then a catch up year when these older than expected people die.

Following periods of excess deaths and the elderly, we may see a subsequent reduction and mortality rates, which is known as the harvesting effect. Of course, this all raises serious concerns about lockdowns. If we are not seeing significant years of life lost from a virus, then what is the point of these policies?

Not only do they not prevent deaths in the elderly, but they will almost certainly cause more deaths in the long run. That is why groups such as PANDA warned that restrictive lockdowns could end up causing almost 30 times the number of deaths than the virus. The socioeconomic effects will negatively affect huge sections of the population, including children.

Now it is essential to put things in perspective to make it clear how unfounded it will be to conclude that COVID-19 was responsible for the majority of excess mortality in the world in 2020. For starters, with COVID-19.

We have a fundamental problem with regards to the definition of a “case” and its clinical diagnosis. In case you missed it, I’ve made a video specifically addressing this issue. And in essence, the WHO website states that a “case” is a person with laboratory confirmation of COVID-19 infection, irrespective of clinical signs and symptoms, essentially this means that a case, is anyone who has a positive PCR test, hence you’re probably familiar with well circulated statements that people are dying with the virus, not because of the virus.

I believe it is more correctly stated that people are dying with a positive PCR test, not because of the positive PCR test. You can see my interview with Dr. Claus Köhnlein, where he explains this PCR pandemic. There is also evidence of mass reclassification of death from other causes than COVID-19.

The vast majority having nothing to do with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), even orthodox virologists, such as Hendrik Streeck conceded that the SARS-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively among old people.

December 22, 2020

“groups such as PANDA warned that restrictive lockdowns could end up causing almost 30 times the number of deaths than the virus.”

Dr Sam Bailey

In Heinsberg for example, a 78 year old man with pre-existing conditions died of heart failure and that without any lung involvement from SARS-CoV2. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the COVID-19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without SARS-CoV2.

The New York post reported in April, how Dr. Deborah Birx had confirmed that the U S health authorities were classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as COVID-19 deaths, regardless of cause.

Additionally state health authorities were encouraging doctors to record COVID deaths and providing large financial incentives for U.S. hospitals to declare patients as COVID-19 patients as Senator Dr. Scott Jensen exposed back in April. I’ll link this video below, but here’s a short section.

Well, last Friday I received a seven page document that sort of told me that if I had an 86 year old patient that had pneumonia, but was never tested for COVID 19, but sometime after she came down with pneumonia, we learned that she had been exposed to her son who had no symptoms, but later on was identified with COVID-19 that it would be appropriate to diagnose on the death certificate COVID-19

Jennifer Cabrera is another brave woman who has been exposing death certificate manipulation in Florida. An example of a case she revealed was the following.

A 50 year old insulin dependent diabetic man with no COVID like symptoms who called 911 for chest pain. He went into cardiac arrest on route to the hospital and was resuscitated with multiple rounds of epinephrine and atropine.

He had acute renal failure and a CT of the head revealed severe cerebral edema. He tested positive for COVID-19 in the emergency room and died. Two days later, you guessed at that was recorded as an official COVID death. Again, I’ll reiterate the difficulty of explaining excess mortality.

There are so many factors to consider, and I presented just a few in this video. Obviously there is more going on than just a virus.

To finish. I’ll let you in on a little secret. I have been brought in as a coauthor for the third English edition of Virus Mania. Hopefully you’ll be pleased to know that we are dedicating a whole chapter to COVID-19, and yes, there will be a more in-depth discussion about excess mortality. We’ll also be going over the years that have led up to COVID-19, including plenty on vaccines and content that has restricted on most social media sites. Currently I’ll let you know the release date, as soon as I know until then keep a close eye on my channel.


  1. CGTN – On the Scene | Disinfection at Wuhan’s old town complex amid the coronavirus epidemic–Disinfection-at-Wuhans-old-town-complex-amid-the-coronavirus-epidemic_1080p:5
  2. CBS This morning: Italy struggles to find space for bodies despite flattening virus curve
  3. Telegraph – Lockdowns more harmful than disease
  4. Euromomo (European excess mortality stats)
  5. AMM (France) re: Hydroxychloroquine overdose rate
  6. Hydroxychloroquine – usual dose
  7. Dr Klaus Köhnlein:
  8. UK Column
  9. What is Years of Life Lost
  10. Dr Klaus Püschel – The Figures do not justify the fear of corona (via Google Translate)
  11. John Ioannidis – Years of Life Lost
  12. PANDA – Lockdowns may cause 29 times more deaths
  13. WHO Case definition of Covid-19 (Dec, 2020)
  14. Hendrik Streeck comments (pay-walled)
  15. NY Post – Deaths as ‘Covid-19’ deaths regardless of cause
  16. Senator Dr Scott Jensen whistle-blowing on Covid-19 death certificates and payments
  17. US HHS Document to Doctors on How to Certify COVID-19 Deaths including Related Deaths
  18. Jennifer Cabrera – Death Certificates and Covid-19


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Video Copyright Sam Bailey (December 22, 2020)

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